🔗 Share this article

Against the backdrop of the immense confusion surrounding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “control” the country and “take back the oil”, one thing is clear – these actions create a truly chilling precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but the early hours of Saturday witnessed its initial significant armed assault on the continent of South America. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Trump proclaimed.

The choice to militarily strike another sovereign country and capture its head of state – only a few days after he stated a desire for negotiations – possesses far-reaching consequences. This ought to concern everyone.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have stolen the last election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has indicated that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and rejected rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other parts of the leadership-stricken government are far more intransigent.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who was elected promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He does not see the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is transforming it into a lawless actor.

He believes that the US’s might enables it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: observe the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He promises that Venezuelan oil means this new undertaking “will be financially free”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came absent any United Nations mandate or the consent of the US Congress; Democrats were not even informed and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to destroy them.

Disregard the implication this carries to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will likely encourage additional military gambits.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

No one buys the justification that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is propelled by the promise of energy wealth as well as personal bravado, the worldview of key officials, and the appetite for triumphalism as domestic popularity wanes.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode emphasizes the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to turn attention back home – but soaring healthcare premiums, financial discontent and ongoing controversies increase his appetite for distraction.

We are not yet 12 months into his four-year term. Other governments may come to rue the day if they remain quiet at this juncture, given what – and who – could be next.