Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
