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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the largest resurgence receives the award. However, it creates an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or merely the most shocking surprise.

But the current field is distinctly different. The group of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners fading and recent strugglers rising together. During an typical season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this chaotic and entertaining year, he's up against multiple other elite coaches.

Here is how the ideal ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his special ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to create big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the level of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, he would be the overwhelming choice. But this isn't a normal year!

The area where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of peers.

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