Day-to-Day Murders in the nation Decline Over a Third Under the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Official Data

The average figure of daily killings monthly in the country has dropped by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, as stated by recent administrative statistics. But, security specialists have warned that homicide figures could fail to indicate improved national safety.

Notable Drop in Per-Day Averages

There was an average of nearly 55 killings a day in last November versus almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the leadership in September. This announcement was delivered by the director of the nation's federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The outcome in homicides that we’ve had during these months is remarkably important,” the President said, adding that the previous month the least amount of murders were registered for any single November in the last decade.

Historical Background and Official Plan

Fierce cartel internal conflicts, alongside the administration's heavily military operations to take on the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in recent times. The figure reached a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the country’s official data agency.

That gave Mexico a homicide figure more than four times greater than that of the United States. Since then, murders have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her national security strategy for an ostensibly more pronounced decline in killings in the current year.

At a press conference in the summer, the President declared: “There is a strategy, there is tracking of the strategy, and there is detailed monitoring town by town in certain cases. The approach functions. And we have to persist at it each day.”

The key pillars of Sheinbaum’s safety plan encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Advancing information gathering and investigation work.
• Increased coordination between various authorities.

Analyst Warnings and Statistical Limitations

However, public safety analysts warned that focusing solely on murder data to draw a conclusion of improved security was flawed. This is especially true considering the rise in different crimes such as people going missing.

“It would be positive information if this was a drop, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the murder data and conclude: ‘Alright, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican cartels. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”

Per the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings overall dropped by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year compared with the same timeframe last year. Yet, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in certain regions have risen by as much as 200%.

“Data on murders is not valid for assessing the reality of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who lack the resources or the will to correctly identify and classify remains. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violence through disappearances.”

Vargas added that relying on monthly averages of daily killings was also an issue because it might hide periods when there were particularly elevated levels of murders.

“Employing the per-day mean renders spikes of violent crime unseen,” he concluded.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress

Where the administration can point to the success of its security plan is on arrests and confiscations. Close to 40,000 individuals were apprehended between October 2024 and this past November for major offenses, per government data. Over 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tons of drugs confiscated.

“Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms advantageous,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Frustration

But in spite of these measures, Mexico is still plagued by severe violence, with a number of regions in the throes of cartel-driven bloodshed. In the previous month there was a prominent murder of a popular mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders assassinated in the past year.

Weeks later, thousands of protesters demonstrated in the capital and throughout the nation to voice their outrage at graft and narco-violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a manner to create a narrative of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s highly effective, socially it’s highly questionable,” the analyst said.