A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
