‘A Critical Scenario’: Hostilities on Iran Squeezes India's Cooking-Gas Availability.

The shockwaves of a war being fought nearly a significant distance away are now impacting India's households.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran hinder energy deliveries through the Strait of Hormuz, supplies of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are dwindling across India, pushing restaurants to shorten food lists, close earlier and in some cases close completely.

Social media is filled with video clips showing queues outside fuel suppliers across Indian cities and towns as anxieties over fuel supplies escalate. Restaurant kitchens appear the hardest struck: the sharpest squeeze is in food service establishments.

"The situation is dire. LPG simply is unavailable," says a spokesperson of the a major restaurant body.

Most eateries run either on business-grade gas tanks or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the lack of supply are now being noticed across the country. "Numerous restaurants have ceased operations - some in Delhi, many in the southern states. People are adopting solid fuels and induction stoves to keep food preparation going."

Localized Effects

In Mumbai, local news say up to a fifth of hospitality businesses are already completely or partially closed as commercial LPG supplies dwindle. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some restaurants say their gas stocks have shrunk with little backup. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and no food items - it is truly dismal. Commerce will take a hit," says a chain proprietor in Bengaluru.

Restaurant managers are scrambling to adapt. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are opening only for dinner and operating solely in the evening," an industry representative says, adding that closures are fluctuating as supplies come and go. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a fluid situation."

Retailers note a surge in sales of electronic cooking appliances, with some saying they are running out of them.

Authority's View

Yet, the government states there is no shortage.

India has more than 300 million domestic LPG users and officials say supplies are being prioritized to households as conflict-related stress from the regional hostilities impact energy markets.

About a majority of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about 90% of those imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic bottleneck now largely blocked by the hostilities.

The oil ministry says that it directed refineries to maximise LPG output for domestic use, raising domestic production by about a quarter. Non-domestic supply is being prioritised for vital industries such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "just and open".

"Some panic booking and hoarding has been caused by false reports. The regular refill period for household cylinders remains about two-and-a-half days," says a government spokesperson.

Spreading Anxiety

Now the anxiety is moving beyond kitchens. On social media, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a lengthy, winding line of scooters outside a gas outlet. "Anxiety is palpable," the caption reads.

According to reports from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be overstated.

India imports almost all of its oil. Around 50% of its oil purchases - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from Middle Eastern nations.

Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the shortfall could be partly compensated for by higher imports of discounted Russian crude, according to a industry commentator.

Based on shipping data and credible market sources, increased Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, narrowing India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Tens of millions of Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a viable alternative," an analyst noted.

Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness

The key weakness is LPG, commentators observe.

India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through the Strait.

Refineries can tweak operations to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only raise domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.

In short: "Crude supply risk can be moderately reduced through alternative sourcing. Processed petroleum stocks remains relatively comfortable. Cooking gas supply is the critical issue to monitor in the coming weeks."

What may be worsening the panic on the ground is not just tight supply but uneven distribution - and the familiar spectre of panic buying.

An industry representative claims price gouging.

"Distributors are taking advantage of the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and auctioned off."

For now, India's oil supplies may be cushioned by worldwide shipping. But in kitchens across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next cylinder.